The U.S. economy would produce 1.8 million fewer jobs in 2022 if the Republican legislation to repeal the Affordable Care Act became law, according to a new analysis by the Center for American Progress.
Two provisions in the legislation accounted for most of the projected job losses: repealing expanded eligibility for Medicaid coverage and cutting federal financial assistance for marketplace health coverage.
Both measures were expected to eliminate 2.2 million jobs in 2022, according to the study by the left-leaning think tank.
But the bill’s nearly $600 billion in tax cuts – that mainly benefit higher-income Americans - are expected to add 468,000 new jobs, resulting in a net loss of about 1.8 million jobs.
Previous studies have estimated that millions would lose jobs if the health law were repealed.
But the new CAP estimates are among the first to look at the labor market implications of the American Health Care Act, House Speaker Paul Ryan’s Obamacare replacement bill that’s expected to face a full floor vote in the House this week.
The legislation would wipe out the Affordable Care Act’s individual coverage mandate, replace Obamacare’s income-based tax credits with smaller ones based on age and phase out enhanced funding for 11 million newly-eligible Medicaid recipients.
The measure is largely financed through cuts to the Medicaid program, which the bill would move from an open-ended entitlement program to one with capped funding based on the number of enrollees.
Last week, the Congressional Budget Office estimated the bill would cause 14 million people to lose health coverage in 2018 and 24 million over the next ten years.
Tony Pugh: 202-383-6013, @TonyPughDC