Lost in all the attention paid to President Donald Trump’s threat of unleashing “fire and fury” on North Korea is his promise to bring the country to heel with tough sanctions. It hasn’t worked so far, because of Russia, China and shadowy middlemen tied to both nations.
North Korea has successfully skirted sanctions for two decades and developed a nuclear arsenal thanks to a network of Chinese middlemen, rogue Russian partners and no shortage of people willing to help, even at a steadily escalating price.
Trump’s threat makes him the fourth consecutive U.S. president to promise that he’d change North Korea’s behavior by blocking its access to the global financial system. But China and Russia have both long eased any pain to North Korea caused by the economic clampdown through a series of investments that have allowed Pyongyang to direct its cash into weapons programs.
Russia, for instance, enjoys a long-term lease at a terminal in North Korea’s relatively new port of Rajin on the Sea of Japan, and there is a new ferry service connecting the two countries. China has boosted railroad infrastructure near Dandong, its border chokepoint for trade with North Korea. Plus, both Russia and China give North Korea a trading lifeline.
China’s General Administration of Customs said in April that trade with North Korea had expanded more than 37 percent in the first three months of 2017, despite tighter global sanctions. Over the weekend, China pledged to halt imports of iron, lead and coal from North Korea. Russia appears to be backfilling what China pulls back, especially North Korean coal, according to reports citing the Russian state-owned news site Sputnik.
Indeed, despite years of sanctions, Pyongyang shows no sign of a financial squeeze.
North Korea manages to skirt financial sanctions mostly through the use of Chinese nationals who lend their name and businesses for transactions in exchange for a handsome payoff, according to spies and defectors.
The illicit money washes through banks in Hong Kong, Singapore, Malaysia and sometimes even the United States, and eventually back to China, where North Korean officials can access it.
“It’s like whack-a-mole. Every time there is a set of (sanction) designations that come out, a new company or front person emerges as a primary interlocutor,” said Scott Snyder, director of the U.S.-Korea policy program at the Council on Foreign Relations. “If you had 100 percent Chinese (sanctions) enforcement, won’t there always be a Chinese partner willing to be paid for the growing risk as a supplier for what North Korea needs?”
The latest round of UN sanctions, passed unanimously by the Security Council, is unlikely to have any greater effect. While China said over the weekend it would ban imports of North Korean coal, lead and iron, tougher sanctions are only likely to raise the premium demanded by middlemen, but they are unlikely to tie North Korea’s hands.
A recent report by the policy-analysis group C4ADS said sanctions have failed in part because “the system of North Korean financing and procurement is practically invisible, making it nearly impossible to expose.”
The group suggested a solution has been hiding in plain sight — a more targeted effort, focused on identifying middlemen of Chinese and other nationalities who are key cogs in a limited pipeline.
It’s a view shared by Marcus Noland, who advises presidents and policymakers on North Korea. He thinks the grip has been slowly tightening on North Korea in recent years but not because of sanctions per se.
“Because of North Korea’s size and culture — and isolation — it appears that North Korea has a relatively thin bench of people who are capable of operating an international sanctions-evasion network,” said Noland, executive vice president of the Peterson Institute for International Economics.
One example: A North Korean-born man, Kim Il Song who had Chinese residency was nabbed in a sting operation, traveling to Hawaii to buy military-grade night-vision goggles for Pyongyang. He was sentenced in February 2016 to three years in U.S. prison. A UN report earlier this year documented how a small number of front companies in Singapore allegedly helped North Korea conduct arms sales.
In both cases, there were a relatively small number of people involved in the transactions.
“The number of those Chinese intermediaries is not that big,” Noland said.