GOP faces its first tax-cut test | McClatchy Washington Bureau

Since the tax law's passage in December, Republicans have watched it become more popular, the economic news grow more positive, and their own political standing improve.

Now comes a much bigger challenge: Can the party’s tax cuts actually move votes?

A special House election in Pennsylvania next month will be the best political test yet of the tax law, a potential vindication of – or warning to – Republicans who hope that its passage will fundamentally alter a political environment that recently appeared to threaten their House majority.

Even as the national political climate shifts to a renewed debate about gun violence in the aftermath of the deadly mass shooting at Stoneman Douglas High School in Florida – one that has put Republicans on the defensive – the race here has stayed focused on pocketbook issues.

Already, the race between Republican Rick Saccone and Democrat Conor Lamb has featured clashes over the tax legislation, with the candidates sparring over it at a debate and one GOP super PAC putting its message front-and-center in TV ads.

Now, both parties will watch the contest’s final three weeks closely for concrete signs of how the Republicans' signature legislative achievement is shaping the broader midterms landscape.

“I wouldn’t say it’s the main selling point, but it’s a great example of what’s to come from Republican leadership that we are producing and delivering on what we say and the promises we made,” Saccone said in an interview. “This is the first installment on a long-term payment plan to help the taxpayer.”

Trump signed the tax bill into law late last year, giving Republicans a desperately needed legislative win. While the measure was deeply unpopular in December, its standing has since increased considerably, rising from 37 percent approval then to 51 percent approval this month, according to a poll conducted by SurveyMonkey for The New York Times. Still, a Quinnipiac poll also released earlier this month found that while support for the tax plan is rising, 62 percent of those surveyed said the wealthy stood to benefit the most from the legislation — a view at odds with Republican efforts to cast the measure as a break for the middle class.

Leading Republican strategists say the fate of the midterm elections will rest on most voters believing they received a tax break from the law.

"If you could answer this question on Nov. 1, I could predict what happens: Did the middle class think we cut their taxes?" said Corry Bliss, executive director of the GOP super PAC Congressional Leadership Fund, which is heavily involved in the Pennsylvania race.

Bliss said his group’s polling found that most middle-class voters thought the answer was “no” in December. But things have changed since then: In some districts, he said he’s seen public approval of the bill rise; it was relatively unpopular and now earns majority support.

On air in the district, Congressional Leadership Fund has leaned into the fight, running two TV ads touting the law — including one spot deriding House Democratic Leader Nancy Pelosi for calling its middle-class tax benefits “crumbs.”

"The contrast for November is, one party cut your taxes, while the other party mocked you, calling your tax cut ‘crumbs,’” Bliss said. “The Democrats would rather spend their time trying to impeach the president than help the middle class.”

Former Pennsylvania Gov. Ed Rendell, a Democrat, doesn't buy the idea that the bill helps most voters. But in an interview, he did acknowledge that the GOP-passed tax reform measure has grown significantly more popular over the last several months--and said Republican messaging on the airwaves had clearly moved the dial.

"I definitely think it's effective in the sense that it's doubled the amount of support for the tax reform bill in less than two months, solid TV has been effective in that sense," he said. "Now will that translate into votes for Republican candidates?"

"One-hundred percent of the people whose opinions changed on the tax reform bill aren't going to automatically decide to vote Republican, but some will," he said. "I don't know where the line will be drawn. To some extent it depends on how effective the Lamb campaign has been in debunking the idea that this is a middle-class tax cut."

Lamb, for his part, said he opposed passage of the legislation but declined to call for its repeal, saying he wanted to keep tax rates for the middle class where they are now. He also said he doesn't want to raise the corporate tax rate from its current level, either, but would try to close the carried-interest loophole if given a chance to alter the law in Congress.

Politically, he doubts the law has made much of a difference.

"Not that I can tell," Lamb said in an interview.

Democrats, meanwhile, point out that Saccone’s campaign has avoided highlighting the tax issue in his own TV ads, instead turning to messages focused on the candidate’s experience with North Korea and President Donald Trump’s proposed infrastructure plan. It’s evidence, they say, that despite the GOP rhetoric, the law’s politics still aren’t a positive for the party.

And they add that if the race in this southwest Pennsylvania district, one Trump won by nearly 20 points, is even competitive (and both parties view the race as close, though Saccone has a small edge), it’s a sure sign that the political environment hasn’t shifted since the Democratic Party won huge victories last year in Virginia’s gubernatorial race and Alabama’s special Senate election.

"Like most special elections, it is a testing ground for how these issues will play out with those voters in the fall, and Pennsylvania 18 is a testing ground for how the tax plan plays out in the most Republican districts that could be competitive in 2018," said Jesse Ferguson, a veteran Democratic strategist who still expects that the tax bill will be problematic for Republicans in many districts. He continued, "Given how Republican that district is, it is a testing ground for how deep into the Republican territory Republicans have to worry."

Pennsylvania-based GOP strategist Charlie Gerow cautioned against reading too much into the race in Pennsylvania, in part because the entire state is reeling from the new congressional map approved by the state supreme court, which Republicans are hotly contesting. While the new map wouldn't apply for the special election, the fight over redistricting has injected a degree of uncertainty into the whole contest, he said. Some Democrats agree.

But that said, Gerow continued, the special election in the 18th district still appears to be much closer than expected--in part because even in conservative corners of the country like this, Democrats are motivated.