Democrats are eager to make the controversy over the Hurricane Maria death toll a political flashpoint this fall, telling voters they want a special commission to investigate the Trump administration's response to the disaster in the same way a similar panel investigated the 9/11 terrorist attacks.
But it's unlikely Republicans, who control Congress and the White House, will sanction a special commission on Puerto Rico before the 2018 elections.
Florida-based pollster Brad Coker said the caucus’ move, which it proposed Wednesday at a a Capitol Hill news conference, could be part of a larger effort among Florida Democrats to win more of the Puerto Rican vote in the hotly-contested U.S. Senate and governor's races this fall. About half those fleeing Puerto Rico in the hurricane's wake landed in Florida.
But Coker said he’s skeptical the commission push will make a difference for Puerto Rican voters on the mainland, especially if it doesn’t go anywhere in Congress.
“Republicans still control both houses and they may not let it get off the ground,” Coker said. “Everything these days is politically motivated, so i don’t know if [any voter] really takes any gesture seriously."
But Darrell West, director of governance studies at The Brookings Institution, a Washington-based research group, said while it’s unlikely the commission idea would go far in Congress before the 2018 elections, the push for it could prove influential in areas with large numbers of Puerto Rican migrants.
"I think it will be helpful in Florida particularly because there are so many Latinos there and they can see how badly the U.S. government handled the hurricane," he said.
No Republicans attended the Wednesday news conference, which came about a week after the release of a Harvard University study estimated the hurricane’s death toll in Puerto Rico could be more than 4,000.
Their count is far higher than the government’s official number — 64.
Similar to the commission convened after the 9/11 terrorist attack, the group’s members would be selected by Congress and the White House, and would not include any current members of Congress, federal employee or employee of the Puerto Rico government, according to Alex Haurek, a spokesman for Rep. Nydia Velazquez, D-N.Y., a key player in the push for the commission.
The costs of such a commission are expected to be “minimal,” Haurek added. The budget for the 9/11 commission was $15 million.
That commission, created in 2002, issued its final report in 2004. It noted how several government agencies had not acted on intelligence that may have thwarted terrorist activity.
Velazquez denied that the group's announcement was political in nature.
"This is not about politics, it’s about policy. As we've seen, death tolls affect how our federal government responds to disasters and this commission would examine whether FEMA's response in Puerto Rico may have been slowed by the unbelievable, low death toll number coming out of Puerto Rico," she said.
Puerto Rico governor Ricardo Rosselló said in November that the island would likely need $94.4 billion to rebuild in the wake of Hurricanes Irma and Maria.
Thus far, FEMA has provided about $1.3 billion in aid to the territory and obligated about $2.2 billion for public assistance projects, said Jenny Burke, a FEMA spokesperson, in an email.
“The insinuation that federal response has been lacking is absurd,” Burke wrote.
The Government Accountability Office is currently looking into the death toll discrepancies, said office spokesman Chuck Young in an email.
Christine Condon: @cchristine19