After working through the night, House Energy and Commerce Committee member Rep. Tony Cardenas, D-Calif., stretches while members of the committee argue the details of the GOP's "Obamacare" replacement bill, Thursday, March 9, 2017, on Capitol Hill in Washington. J. Scott Applewhite AP
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All three senators are closely aligned with a slew of conservative activist groups that have blasted the current Republican proposal as a watered-down version of Obamacare. The groups, including Heritage Action and FreedomWorks, are major supporters of the three senators. If the trio capitulates, Paul, Lee and Cruz run the risk of angering their conservative base.

The opposition of all three is significant because Republicans hold only a four-vote majority in the Senate. If all three vote against an Obamacare replacement proposal, it will fail.

Moderate Senate Republicans

Four Senate Republicans, Cory Gardner of Colorado, Lisa Murkowski of Alaska, Shelley Moore Capito of West Virginia and Rob Portman of Ohio, vowed to vote against rolling back Medicaid expansion, a key portion of the bill for conservative members. Murkowski went one step further, vowing support for Planned Parenthood earlier this week. The women’s health organization, which also performs abortions, faces a significant reduction in funding under the current proposal.

A number of other senators, including Susan Collins of Maine and Marco Rubio of Florida, have also expressed concerns about the bill in its current form.

Again, if three Senate Republicans vote against the legislation, it will fail.

Outside medical interest groups

Every major hospital entity, along with America’s largest interest group, the AARP, is on the record opposing the bill. They are worried that rolling back Medicaid expansion could result in millions of Americans losing health coverage.

March 8, 2017