Steve Stivers, the head of the House GOP’s campaign operation, told reporters on Sept. 25, “I don’t expect we’ll have to spend any money” to get Katie Arrington elected.
Just over one month later — and one week before the midterms — Republicans are about to pour $87,000 into the race, hoping to give their 1st District congressional candidate a crucial boost.
On Monday, the National Republican Campaign Committee’s independent expenditure arm announced it would spend that sum on television advertising for Arrington between Oct. 30 and Nov. 6, Election Day.
The state representative from Summerville is running against Democrat Joe Cunningham for a seat left open by Republican Rep. Mark Sanford, who Arrington bested in the primary.
Though the NRCC, House Republicans’ main fundraising apparatus, and its independent expenditure department are separate entities, Stivers, an Ohio congressman, would be aware of major spending decisions.
Maddie Anderson, an NRCC spokeswoman, said there was no cause for alarm.
“We are confident in the campaign Katie Arrington is running and are excited about having her in Congress,” she said. “The NRCC’s job is to make absolutely sure this seat stays in Republican hands.”
The eleventh-hour influx of cash for Arrington comes as Republicans are stretched so financially thin the party is pulling out of races for incumbents who appear likely to lose in hopes of saving candidates who stand a better chance of political survival in a year when Democrats could take back the control of the House.
In this environment, every dollar counts, and the NRCC is spend money on Arrington to defend a seat that has been in GOP hands since 1981, in a district President Donald Trump won by 13 points.
“They must have seen some polling, or they must have seen some indication that the race is closer than they thought,” said Gibbs Knotts, a politician science professor at the College of Charleston. “Arrington is a little further to the right than maybe you’re typical Republican in the 1st District, and Cunningham has run a strong campaign and shown to be an effective fundraiser ... (Democrats) don’t always put up such a strong candidate.”
Arrington, who defeated Sanford by touting her loyalty to Trump — the president even endorsed her hours before the polls closed on primary election day back in June — is being outraised and outspent.
A campaign finance report filed Oct. 25 with the Federal Election Commission shows Arrington has raised $993,482, not counting the $408,300 loan she made to her campaign. She has spent $1.2 million and has $130,260 cash on hand.
Cunningham’s Oct. 25 Federal Election Commission filing shows he has raised $1.9 million, spent $1.6 million and now has $298,095 cash on hand.
The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee has Cunningham on its “Red-to-Blue” program, a distinction reserved for the candidates deemed most likely to flip the seats where they’re running. The program entitles Cunningham to national party resources, assistance and money.
The DCCC independent expenditure arm has not spent any money on the Cunningham race so far. The DCCC “is investing in a robust field program focused on assisting the Cunningham campaign in turning out African American voters,” according to spokeswoman Amanda Sherman. Sherman did not, however, disclose a dollar amount.
Arrington spokesman Michale Mulé said the campaign was not concerned by the NRCC’s investment, which the team did not learn about until Monday morning.
“Joe Cunningham is attempting to buy this election with millions of dollars of misleading ads,” Mulé said in a statement. “Cunningham is also being supported by hundreds of thousands of dollars of extreme-left, out of state, special interest groups.”
Mulé was referring to the small-dollar donations Cunningham has amassed through Act Blue, an online fundraising platform for Democratic candidates.
Tyler Jones, a spokesman for the Cunningham campaign, said the NRCC’s investment in the race at this time sent a clear message.
“This race is neck-and-neck,” Jones said, “and if they’re seeing the same polling we’re seeing, they should be worried.”
Emma Dumain: 202-383-6126, @Emma_Dumain