Evan McMullin, who's running for as an independent presidential bid, talks with the Deseret News and KSL editorial board in Salt Lake City. Donald Trump has shattered the normal Republican consensus in Utah even more so than he has nationwide, activating fault lines under a normally stable electorate largely unified by a single religion. Weston Kenney AP
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“A growing number of Americans are coming to the realization that Trump is more than just a political train wreck,” Republican strategist and McMullin campaign chief Rick Wilson wrote. “He’s a real threat to the nation.”

McMullin’s support in Utah is growing. Weeks after announcing his bid he took 9 percent in a Public Policy Polling survey and in September he garnered 12 percent in a poll conducted by Dan Jones & Associates.

The recent surge comes as Utah Republicans are rejecting Trump. Gov. Gary Herbert and Rep. Jason Chaffetz, both Mormons, declared they will not vote for the Republican nominee. Chaffetz said he could not look his 15-year-old daughter in the eye if he voted for Trump.

“There’s a plausible path that Evan McMullin could win Utah,” said Boyd Matheson, president of the Sutherland Institute, a conservative Utah-based research organization.

“It doesn’t matter if it’s Trump or Clinton, Utahns are saying, ‘No, that’s not what leadership looks like to us.’ ”

Polling numbers can range drastically from poll to poll, sometimes showing one presidential contender far ahead of the other while another shows the two neck-and-neck. How do you know what to believe?

Alex Daugherty: 202-383-6049, @alextdaugherty