If Donald Trump loses the election, America could be waiting for him to deliver a concession speech, post-Thanksgiving.
Slumping in the polls, Trump has argued that the election system is rigged against him, and he’s refused to say whether he’d accept the results of the election if he loses to Hillary Clinton.
That means he’s not going to concede an election “until the results are actually known, certified and verified,” his campaign manager, Kellyanne Conway, told ABC’s George Stephanopoulos. “He just doesn’t know what will happen.”
Technically speaking, that could mean no concession speech for as long as three weeks after the Nov. 8 election. The results proclaimed election night are not official – and won’t be until county election supervisors, and then states, certify them. And the timetable for certification varies state by state.
In swing state Florida – home to the famous 2000 recount – official county returns are due to the state no later than Nov. 20 and the state’s election canvassing board meets at 9 .m. on Nov. 22 to certify the official results. But in North Carolina – where Trump campaigned on Friday – the State Board of Elections doesn’t meet until Nov. 29 – three weeks after the election – to certify votes. In Pennsylvania, every county must submit its canvassed results to the state by Nov. 28.
“There’s never a winner or loser on election night. It’s only as a matter of law at the time of certification,” said Edward “Ned” Foley, author of “Ballot Battles: The History of Disputed Elections in the United States.” He noted that the returns come in “fast and furious” on election night, but that every state conducts a certification process, “no matter how close or a blowout the election happens to be.”
The canvass is conducted to ensure that every valid vote cast is included in the totals, including absentee and early ballots, along with overseas and military ballots and provisional and challenged ballots. (Voters have the right to cast provisional ballots if they think they are eligible and registered to vote but are unable to cast regular ballots.)
Two previous presidential contests awaited the full count, Foley said: In 1884, it took two weeks until New York’s canvass was complete for the official verdict that Grover Cleveland had defeated James Blaine. And in 1916, it took two weeks for California’s vote to be certified, confirming that Woodrow Wilson had won the presidency.
There is no requirement Trump ever has to concede, notes Richard Hasen, founding co-editor of the Election Journal and author of the Election Law Blog.
“He could hold out forever. There is no rule that says he has to concede by a certain date,” Hasen said. But he noted that if Clinton –who is looking to expand the battleground – wins by a large margin, there will be pressure on Trump to deliver.
Despite polls that find Trump trailing Clinton in several battleground states, Trump said he expects to win.
“I think we're going to have beyond the Brexit,” he said Friday in North Carolina, suggesting that his campaign will confound the pollsters, just as Britain’s vote to leave the European Union was an upset that the polls had not predicted. Most polling, however, found the two sides of the Brexit campaign closer than Trump is to Clinton.