As a majority of public polls paint a bleak picture for Donald Trump’s path to the White House, he is giving his supporters hope with a single word: Brexit.
The Republican is predicting that a silent majority of supporters not reflected in polls will deliver him a surprise victory, much like the result of the British referendum in June to leave the European Union.
“We will win. We will shock the world,” he promised on Saturday in Johnstown, Pennsylvania. “This is going to be Brexit-plus.”
I think we’re gonna have — whether it’s Brexit or beyond Brexit, I think we’re gonna have a Brexit situation.
Donald Trump on Oct. 24 interview with WBT’s “Charlotte Morning News”
At campaign rallies later that day he also said Nov. 8 would be “beyond Brexit” and “Brexit times five.”
The referendum’s result has been the go-to analogy for Trump and his supporters when confronted with poll numbers that show him trailing Hillary Clinton by an average of 5 points. Nigel Farage, a leader of the movement to leave the EU who has campaigned with Trump, said on CNN last week that he sees “big crossovers” between the U.S. election and the referendum.
Yet here are four reasons the Brexit scenario is unlikely here.
1. In order to pull a Brexit-like victory, the polls would need to be close
In Trump’s view of the Brexit referendum, all the polls were vastly off, which led to an upset victory of “Leave” voters that stunned the political class. But polls there actually found a very close race. The Huffington Post’s combination of 77 polls found a final average of just half a percentage point, with 45.8 percent supporting remaining in the EU and 45.3 percent supporting leaving.
In fact, The Economist’s Brexit poll tracker found the two sides virtually tied on the eve of the referendum. Brexit was a shock not because the polls were so vastly off, but because they were too close to call. Politicians, pundits and betting markets all assumed – and hoped – the status quo would hold. Trump, however, is trailing Clinton both nationally and in many key swing states.
2. In order to pull a Brexit-like victory, the polls would need to be trending Trump’s way in the final weeks
In the final weeks before the referendum, the “Leave” camp picked up momentum. Polls showed their support steadily trending upward. Trump would need to be pulling closer to Clinton in the polling averages, catching up with her by Election Day, for a similar victory. But the opposite is happening. The gap between Trump and Clinton has widened to more than 5 percentage points in the Real Clear Politics aggregate of polls, compared with a 1-point margin in late September.