Four states’ Senate races are pure tossups, a new analysis Thursday from Larry Sabato’s Crystal Ball finds.
Georgia, Louisiana, Colorado and Kansas are going down to the wire, said analysts Kyle Kondik and Geoffrey Skelley. Their assessment has Republicans winding up with 49 Senate seats to Democrats’ 47. Democrats need to get to 50 for a majority, since Vice President Joe Biden would break a tie, while Republicans need 51.
Democrats now hold the seats in Colorado and Louisiana, while Republicans have Kansas and Georgia.
The Georgia and Louisiana races may not be decided until well after Election Day next month, since both would hold runoffs if no one gets a majority.
In Colorado and Kansas, the analysts found, incumbents are “in deep trouble.”
“Given the playing field, this arithmetic certainly advantages the GOP, but there is at least some chance that Democrats might pull off the unexpected,” they said.
In Kansas, they found Sen. Pat Roberts, D-Kansas, has gained, but “he has not really been able to move into the lead.”
Colorado’s Sen. Mark Udall, a Democrat, trails in a new Suffolk University/USAToday poll, but the outcome could depend on turnout, particularly in the sizeable Latino community.