Jeb Bush and Scott Walker are alone in the top tier of potential 2016 Republican presidential candidates in the latest Sabato Crystal Ball/University of Virginia Center for Politics rankings.
Bush, the former Florida governor, appears to the overwhelming Republican establishment favorite now that 2012 presidential nominee Mitt Romney is not running. Walker, the governor of Wisconsin, did well at the January 24 Iowa Freedom Summit and is seen as having appeal to both mainstream and more conservative Republicans.
Bush’s advantages include a built-in network of donors and supporters he inherits from his father and brother. But, the center noted, “Bush fatigue is real.”
Walker, it found, “is getting serious attention and early momentum.” But he “needs to raise mountains of $” and “early peaking will open him up to attacks from others.”
The second tier includes Sen. Marco Rubio of Florida and New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie. Both are seen as dynamic speakers, but the center asks if Rubio has peaked too soon. And Christie is dogged by an image of not being conservative enough for the party base.
The third tier has a host of familiar names, including Sens. Rand Paul of Kentucky and Ted Cruz of Texas, retired neurosurgeon Ben Carson, former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee and former Pennsylvania Sen. Rick Santorum.
“They all basically steal votes from one another because they appeal to many of the same voters – very conservative voters, Tea Party devotees, and evangelicals – and party leaders are going to fight like crazy to prevent any of them from winning the nomination because those leaders do not think they are electable in November,” the center said.