Another candidate could be emerging as an important player in the 2016 Republican presidential nomination free-for-all –Gov. John Kasich of Ohio.
On paper, he looks great. Popular governor in the state pivotal in every presidential election. Loads of Washington experience. Budget expert. Good with people.
Kasich is one of several Republicans governors from swing states considering a White House bid. He won’t commit to the race, saying only he’s thinking about it.
“I’m trying to figure out what the Lord wants me to do with my life,” Kasich told New Hampshire activists Saturday. “He has a purpose for everyone in this room. I want to fulfill that purpose. ... If I feel this is my call I will come back again and again and again.”
Friday and Saturday, he spoke at events in South Carolina, site of the nation’s first Southern primary. Later Saturday, he courted party activists in New Hampshire, site of the first primary. Sunday, he’ll be a guest on NBC’s “Meet the Press.”
Some New Hampshire Republicans were intrigued. During a focus group Saturday, consultant Frank Luntz asked people to name their favorite candidates. Michael Fleming, a Laconia registered nurse, cited Kasich.
“He has all the qualities we look for,” Fleming said.
Kasich’s pitch Saturday was his resume and his center-right approach.
“I think our philosophy as Republicans is less government, but not government out of everything, that we’re gonna reduce our taxes, we’re gonna reform entitlements, we’re gonna lift everybody, minorities, people who live in the shadows,” he said.
He was a congressman for 18 years, becoming one of Congress’ budget experts. In 2010, Kasich was a giant-killer, defeating incumbent Democratic Gov. Ted Strickland.
Kasich improved on his showing four years later. He coasted to a second term in 2014, walloping Democrat Ed FitzGerald of Cleveland nearly 2-1. Kasich appealed to voters as a tax-cutting, job-creating center-right governor, and won all but two of Ohio’s 88 counties. He insisted Saturday he doesn’t govern by polls, though he cited his approval ratings several times.
Politicians who thrive in Ohio are automatically national figures, since the state has voted for every presidential winner since Lyndon Johnson in 1964.
“If he wants to run he’ll be viable,” Luntz said after conducting his focus group. “He’s the successful governor of an industrial state that voted Republican.”
Ironically, that could prove his biggest hurdle, since he’s not the only governor mulling a presidential bid with that background. Chris Christie in 2013 won a second term as governor of Democratic-leaning New Jersey. Michigan’s Rick Snyder won re-election last year in a traditionally Democratic state. Nevada’s Brian Sandoval and New Mexico’s Susana Martinez get mentioned.
More ominously for Kasich, Jeb Bush won two terms to govern swing state Florida, and Scott Walker just won another term as governor of Wisconsin after surviving a 2012 recall.
Walker has already broken out as the year’s up-from-obscurity Republican star. He’s tied with or leading Bush in most polls, and his fight to dilute the clout of public employee unions is a hit with conservative audiences.
Kasich had a different experience. Like Walker, he signed legislation in 2011 limiting collective bargaining rights, but voters rejected the law in a referendum. Kasich then made peace with the unions, and won decent support from the rank and file in his re-election bid.
That’s a plus for Fleming. “Kasich is more ready to be president than Walker,” he said.
Bush presents a different problem. The brother and son of presidents is expected to amass campaign cash at record rates. He’ll inherit much of the network that helped his family win the White House three times since 1980.
But in a year when no one yet knows the rules of engagement, Kasich is seen as having a shot, particularly because the personal touch matters in small early primary and caucus states. “He’s genuine,” said Luntz.
A native of McKees Rocks, Pa., Kasich recalled his upbringing, saying it gives him a deep appreciation of struggling blue collar workers. He got a polite response from the New Hampshire audience; only a few people stood and cheered.
If he’s able to get into the top tier, Republicans would have other questions – is he conservative enough? He agreed to the Medicaid expansion created under the Obama health care law, despite fierce opposition from fellow Republicans.
And does he have that intangible that makes him appear presidential?
Tough questions, and no easy answers. “I’m not sure he can hold the ground versus the establishment machine,” said Scott Wilson, a Hudson banker.
Alice Bury, an Amherst nurse, listed other candidates she’s considering, and Kasich was not among them.
She does like him. “He says the things he really means,” she said, “but he doesn’t seem to have the experience of running as a national candidate.”
Then again, it’s only April, so just wait. After all, said Fleming, “There’s something about Kasich that people will like.”