Jeb Bush would love to re-create the moment when George W. Bush shocked and awed the 2000 presidential campaign, raising a stunningly large amount of cash that changed the race.
That’s not going to happen.
This isn’t your brother’s campaign. The rules of money and politics have changed dramatically, and candidates won’t necessarily have to compete with Bush for establishment money. Candidates today can raise millions for “super PACs” from single donors, for example. And the old-time wine and cheese fundraisers aren’t even de rigueur – lots of money can be raised now with mouse clicks.
The former Florida governor’s backers are expected to report raising at least $100 million, and maybe even twice that, by this summer. His brother used the blow-’em-away strategy successfully in July 1999, when he reported the then-staggering sum of $36 million in the first half of that year.
The political world let out a collective gasp. It was more than any candidate had raised for an entire primary and caucus campaign, and it crowned Bush the clear front-runner for the Republican nomination.
Jeb Bush has been waging an intense campaign for money. His Right to Rise political action committee began the week with a $12,500-per-person roundtable in Seattle. Tuesday, he was in Portland, Ore., for a $12,500-per-person dinner. Sunday and Monday he’ll be in Miami for fundraisers, and next Tuesday, he’ll be featured at a fundraiser in Puerto Rico.
His aides declined to comment on his fundraising.
No matter what he raises, it’s unlikely to intimidate his rivals.
“In the old days it probably had a bigger impact. Look at the top five candidates today, and all will be able to put enough money together,” said Wayne Lesperance, director of the New England College Polling Institute.
Super PACs, for example, have sprung up in the last five years thanks to a federal court ruling, They can raise unlimited amounts from unions, corporations, individuals and others, and then spend for or against a candidate, though they cannot coordinate with the candidate.
All it often takes now to keep a candidate going is one wealthy donor willing to bankroll a PAC that supports a candidate. In 2012, Republicans Newt Gingrich and Rick Santorum remained viable well after it appeared that Mitt Romney had sewn up the nomination, thanks largely to single donors.
That’s one reason that Sen. Ted Cruz, R-Texas, and former Texas Gov. Rick Perry plan to appear this weekend before the Republican Jewish Coalition in Las Vegas.
Casino magnate Sheldon Adelson, a prominent coalition figure, reportedly gave an estimated $93 million to promote his causes and influence the 2012 election. So far this year, he’s co-hosted a fundraising lunch for Sen. Lindsey Graham, R-S.C., and is said to be interested in the candidacy of Sen. Marco Rubio, R-Fla. Adelson and family members have contributed to Rubio in recent years.
Another potential source is the Koch brothers.
The big conservative contributors hosted donors in January, and members of the group plan to spend $889 million during the 2016 election cycle to spread their message of limited government. The money won’t all be spent on a single candidate, nor will it all be spent on campaigns. It could be used to fund foundations or centers on college campuses or other academic research, for instance.
No candidate endorsement is expected for some time. Donors want to be sure their picks don’t stumble and that they show some momentum and fealty to their views. Rubio was said to be a favorite at the January meeting, and recent reports named Wisconsin Gov. Scott Walker as getting a boost.
Not so, said David Koch. “While I think Gov. Walker is terrific, let me be clear, I am not endorsing or supporting any candidate for president at this point in time,” he said.
Walker supporters set up a super PAC last week, and he can tap a national network developed during his two campaigns for governor and the 2012 effort to recall him. Walker spokeswomen wouldn’t comment on fundraising.
He’s expected to be competitive, meaning he’ll probably need at least $30 million by this summer.
That’s the reported goal of Sen. Rand Paul, R-Ky. While Paul still lacks a single, deep-pocketed donor who can or will write a seven-figure check to his super PAC, his allies hope and believe that Silicon Valley will line up to help fill the coffers.
The conventional wisdom is that Paul will be able to enjoy immense grass-roots fundraising success because of the base that helped his father, former U.S. Rep. Ron Paul, R-Texas, raise more than $40 million during the 2012 campaign.
Also in the mix is Cruz. Four super PACs created to help him said they’d raised $31 million during the first week of April. His campaign also raised $4 million during the last week in March.
Rubio should also have enough to keep pace. His campaign wouldn’t provide specific numbers, but he has an extensive fundraising network, and perhaps the boost from Adelson.
Few others are likely to raise anything near Bush-like money, but they also aren’t intimidated.
Backers of retired neurosurgeon Ben Carson, for example, say they’re undaunted by the fundraising juggernauts. “As much as $100 million might help Gov. Bush, but his name might also hurt him,” said John Philip Sousa IV, chairman of the 2016 Committee, a new super PAC supporting Carson.
Chris Adams, Lesley Clark and Maria Recio contributed to this article.