Republicans like Jeb Bush. And a lot really don’t like Donald Trump.
In fact, more than half find Trump a distraction from the primary process, not a serious candidate.
With the first Republican presidential debate coming up Thursday, a new McClatchy-Marist poll finds that a majority of Republicans and Republican-leaning independents personally like Bush, saying they view him favorably rather than unfavorably. Large numbers also like Marco Rubio and Mike Huckabee, far more than dislike them.
But nearly half dislike Trump, suggesting that the billionaire businessman who leads national Republican polls will have a hard time reaching those personally hostile voters and growing his constituency, while a host of others have room to surge.
The debate in Cleveland, the first of a monthly series, will feature the 10 Republicans, plus ties, atop an average of national polls. As many as seven other candidates will not qualify and instead can participate in a late afternoon forum.
The McClatchy-Marist poll dropped questions about voting choices in this survey, believing the debate criteria is a misuse of public polling data for a critical first debate. This survey instead measures how voters feel about the candidates for the Republican and Democratic nominations.
The favorable numbers illustrate whether a candidate starts with goodwill. As the primary campaign develops, voters who like a candidate or see him favorably are more open to hearing their message. Analysts also note that when voters don’t like a candidate, they’re much less likely to be open to supporting them.
Bush, the former governor of Florida, has the highest favorable number, 51 percent, with 30 percent disliking him.
Rubio, a senator from Florida, gets favorable notices from 49 percent of Republicans and Republican-leaning independents and negative ratings from 15 percent.
Other prominent challengers had unfavorable ratings of less than 20 percent but were largely unknown to much of the public, including Wisconsin Gov. Scott Walker and retired neurosurgeon Ben Carson.
Sen. Ted Cruz of Texas appeals to Tom Laney of Odessa, Texas. “Of all the candidates, he’s the one who most closely represents the values of the Constitution and the Founding Fathers,” he said. “He knows the Constitution inside and out and would actually uphold it, unlike the current president.”
Many voters are still making up their minds.
Francisco Luis Valle of Hartsville, S.C, said he was locked in on Trump until the billionaire businessman questioned whether Sen. John McCain, R-Ariz., who spent 5 1/2 years in a North Vietnam prison camp, was a true war hero.
Valle’s father was killed in Vietnam. “At the time, I liked Trump,” Valle said. “Even though I’m not a John McCain man, I know what he went through as a prisoner of war. It (Trump’s remarks) turned me off. The man (McCain) did suffer.” Still, Valle said Trump could win him back.
In such a big field, Trump’s 42 percent favorable could be enough to win primaries and caucuses. He gets strong support from activist wings of the party.
62% Percentage of Republican tea party supporters who view Donald Trump favorably.
“Among the party base, he’s a force to be reckoned with,” said Lee Miringoff, director of the Marist Institute for Public Opinion in New York.
Others with negative images face tougher tasks. Chris Christie, the outspoken governor of New Jersey, and Sen. Lindsey Graham of South Carolina were both seen far more unfavorably than favorably.
Split on candidates' favorability
Hillary Clinton is the most popular candidate with his or her party in the 2016 presidential field right now, rated favorably by 72 percent of Democrats. Bush leads the GOP contenders, at 51 percent favorability.
While some candidates are very divisive – such as Donald Trump who boasts a 42 percent to 49 percent favorable to unfavorable rating – others are simply less well known. Ben Carson, who trails Trump in favorability by two points, doesn't elicit favorable or unfavorable opinions from half of Republicans.