If Donald Trump does not win enough delegates to clinch the Republican nomination before the party meets this summer, it might produce something millions of Americans have never seen: a contested convention.
“This could be a real mess,“ said Richard Berg-Andersson, researcher for The Green Papers, which studies the nominating process.
Trump, the New York billionaire businessman, has 673 delegates, and needs 564 more to be nominated. The only candidate with a reasonable chance of catching up is Sen. Ted Cruz, R-Texas, who has 411 and needs 826. Gov. John Kasich of Ohio has 143.
The last time a major-party candidate entered a convention without a majority was in 1976, when President Gerald Ford had to convince blocs of uncommitted delegates to back him over challenger Ronald Reagan. The last time a convention went beyond one ballot was in 1952, when Democrats chose Adlai Stevenson on the third ballot.
1,237Delegates needed to nominate at this summer’s Republican National Convention
Republicans haven’t seen a second ballot since 1948, but they might see one this summer. Here’s a quick primer on what could happen:
Who are the Republican delegates?
They’re awarded by each state, usually based on primary or caucus votes. In some states, delegates are elected directly, while in others candidates choose delegates.
Starting with Tuesday’s primaries, states yet to vote are ones that can award all their delegates to the winner. All 99 of Florida’s delegates will go to Trump. All 66 Ohio delegates will go to Kasich. In other states, they have been awarded using different formulas, often based on a percentage of the vote.
Must delegates vote for their candidates?
On the first ballot, virtually all the delegates must vote for their candidates. In some states, however, they are not bound. In Pennsylvania, for instance, 17 of the 71 delegates go to the state winner. The rest may vote for whomever they choose, though most are savvy politicians who will go by the wishes of the voters.
Nationally, the rules loosen on a second ballot. Most of the delegates, but not all, can vote for anyone they want. On a third ballot, almost all the delegates are free.
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What happens to delegates of candidates who’ve suspended their campaigns?
Depends on the state. In some cases, delegates have not yet been chosen in states that have already had primaries or caucuses. In Nevada, for instance, Marco Rubio won seven delegates and retired neurosurgeon Ben Carson won two. Both candidates have since suspended their campaigns, and at the state’s GOP convention in May, they might now wind up with none.
The battle for those delegates has already begun. Most of Rubio’s estimated 172 delegates are now in play. Rubio, as with any candidate no longer active, cannot control those delegates; he can only recommend.
What’s a ‘brokered’ convention and is it likely?
It’s a throwback to the days when party bosses controlled blocs of delegates, who were rarely chosen in primaries or caucuses. State leaders could cut deals with one another to boost an underdog or assure that their pick for vice president would get on the ticket.
That’s unlikely today, said Berg-Andersson, since party bosses rarely hold such clout.
Thomas E. Dewey won the 1948 Republican nomination on the third ballot, after his opponents withdrew
What kind of maneuvering is likely before the convention?
Watch the convention’s Rules Committee. It usually meets a few days before the convention opens, and it has one man and one woman from each state and six territories or other jurisdictions. It can decide, among other things, what it takes to get one’s name placed in nomination, meaning the name is eligible for votes in the full convention.
Before the last convention, Republicans said a candidate would need a majority of delegates in at least eight states to be formally considered. That could change in July, though. Rules Committee members are delegates, chosen by each state. It’s hard to know who will be on the committee.
If Trump is close to 1,237, is a contested convention likely?
“That’s still to be determined,” said veteran GOP legal strategist Ben Ginsberg, “but you have to pay attention to the (idea) of a contested convention.”
The problem for the stop-Trump forces would not only be alienating Trump and his supporters, but also doing exactly what voters have railed against all year: insiders controlling the presidential selection process.
David Lightman: 202-383-6101, @lightmandavid