Asked what he might do given the looming choices this November, fervent anti-Donald Trump talk radio host Charlie Sykes had a simple response. Root for the Green Bay Packers and pump up Sen. Ron Johnson.
The Packers have to contend with their rivals in the National Football League. Johnson, a first-term Republican, has a different problem as he fights for re-election: being weighed down by his own team with Donald Trump at the top of the GOP ticket this fall.
It’s hard enough for down-ballot Republicans in Wisconsin in presidential election years – the state has voted Democratic for president in every election since 1984. Now adding Trump – who couldn’t win the Republican primary in Wisconsin – only adds to the degree of difficulty.
For some GOP incumbents, the 2016 vote means contending with their Democratic rivals while also worrying about being dragged down by the man poised to be at the top of the Republican ticket in November.
“It was always going to be a tough race for Johnson because of the nature of our electorate in Wisconsin,” Sykes said in an interview. “And, obviously, the Trump thing complicates things.”
Johnson, who is running against former Sen. Russell Feingold, is not alone. He’s among nearly a dozen incumbent Republican senators striving to navigate the impact of the bombastic and unpredictable Trump as the party’s standard bearer on their own races.
Republicans hold a 54-46 majority in the Senate. But they are defending 24 seats in November compared to just 10 for Democrats – only a third of the Senate is up every two years – and they are in jeopardy of losing enough seats to lose control.
“The Senate majority is firmly up for grabs,” said Nathan Gonzales, editor and publisher of the Rothenberg & Gonzales Political Report. “The ‘Never Trump’ voters are a key voting block. We don’t know what they’ll do – because they don’t know what they’ll do in November.”
This has been the most upside down, unpredictable election year for any of us. We just don’t know where this is going. A week in politics is a month. Who knows how it will affect him?
Nancy Milholland, Racine County GOP member and county co-chair of Sen. Ron Johnson’s campaign
Wisconsin will surely be a test. Not only do Republican presidential candidates do poorly there in Novembers, but Trump also did poorly there in the spring. He lost the Wisconsin Republican primary by a wide margin to Ted Cruz.
Johnson has said he’ll support whoever gets the Republicans nomination. But he added in a Wisconsin radio interview this week that, “To me, ‘support’ and ‘endorse’ are two totally different things.”
Brian Reisinger, a Johnson campaign spokesman, called the Trump question a media preoccupation.
“While the media obsesses with only the presidential election, Ron remains focused on doing his job – working to address the economic and national security concerns he’s heard from Wisconsinites in every corner of the state,” he said. “His position on the presidential race remains unchanged.”
Toomey has basically tried to steer away from Trump. He’s even indicated that he might not go to the Republican convention.
G. Terry Madonna, director of Franklin and Marshall College’s Center for Politics and Public Affairs
Polls give a mixed view. In late March, a Marquette poll showed Feingold leading Johnson 47-42 percent. In February, Feingold was up 49-37.
Betsy Ankney, Johnson’s campaign manager, wrote in a memo leaked after the state’s primary that the incumbent can win because of high Republican voter turnout and a strong ground operation powered by Wisconsin Gov. Scott Walker’s machine.
Plus, Feingold is running against history. He’s trying to defeat the senator who defeated him, something that hasn’t been done anywhere since 1934.
“Right now, I believe Sen. Johnson’s in great condition,” Nancy Milholland, a Racine County Republican Party member and county co-chair of Johnson’s campaign. “He’s chairman of Homeland Security – he owns that. Russ Feingold, we fired him in 2010. And typically, once you’re fired you don’t come back.”
Still, Charles Franklin, director of the Marquette Law School Poll, said Johnson’s re-election chances remain “reasonably threatened, especially if it turns out to be a strong Hillary Clinton year” in Wisconsin.
EDITORS: STORY CAN END HERE
Here’s a look at other Senate races to watch:
ARIZONA
Arizona’s Republican incumbent John McCain usually sweats out primary challenges and comfortably prevails. The perspiration might be warranted this year. A poll released Tuesday by the Democratic-leaning Public Policy Polling shows McCain easily beating State Sen. Kelli Ward and three other challengers.
But in a two-person race, McCain and Ward are tied at 41 percent. In addition, McCain has only a 35 percent job approval rating among Republican voters in the survey while 50 percent disapprove. Even before the poll’s release, McCain expressed concerns about Trump’s impact on his re-election.
“If Donald Trump is at the top of the ticket, here in Arizona, with over 30 percent of the vote being Hispanic, no doubt that this may be the race of my life,” McCain said at a closed-door Arizona fundraiser last month. A recording of the event was obtained by Politico.
ILLINOIS
Sen. Mark Kirk, R-Ill., is regarded as the Senate’s most vulnerable incumbent.
He faces a tough challenge in Rep. Tammy Duckworth, D-Ill., a wounded Iraq War veteran. Kirk has said he’d support Trump. But he also bucked his party leadership and was the first Republican senator to meet with Merrick Garland, President Barack Obama’s stalled Supreme Court nominee.
MISSOURI
Several months ago, it was widely thought that Republican Sen. Roy Blunt would easily win re-election. But Trump’s rise to the top of the ticket is complicating that effort. Blunt has offered only reluctant support to his party’s all-but-certain nominee and is planning not to attend the Republican National Convention in Cleveland.
Blunt faces a potentially strong challenger in Missouri Secretary of State Jason Kander, who served as a military intelligence officer in Afghanistan.
A poll last month by DFM Research of Minnesota for the United Transportation Union showed Blunt leading Kander, 49 percent to 35 percent. Another poll, by Remington Research for Missouri Scout had Blunt ahead 44-37 percent over Kander.
NEW HAMPSHIRE
Sen. Kelly Ayotte, R-N.H., faces a tough re-election bid against Democratic Gov. Maggie Hassan. Ayotte’s campaign said that she’ll support the nominee, but not endorse Trump.
A Dartmouth College poll released earlier this month showed Ayotte leading Hassan 37-34 with 28 percent undecided.
“The key question for Ayotte, given the division within the Republican ranks on the Trump campaign is will it have an effect on turnout,” said Dante Scala, an associate political science professor at the University of New Hampshire.
Hassan’s campaign had to endure some bad publicity last month when her husband, Tom Hassan, was censured for his handling of a sexual misconduct scandal at a prestigious New England prep school where he served as principal.
PENNSYLVANIA
Even before Trump’s rise, incumbent Republican Pat Toomey faced a tough race against Katie McGinty, a former federal and state environmental aide. Obama carried battleground Pennsylvania twice and voters ousted the state’s Republican governor in 2014.
Now, McGinty “talks about the two T’s” – Trump and incumbent Sen. Pat Toomey, R-Pa., and “doesn’t get a sentence out without putting the two together,” according to G. Terry Madonna, director of the Center for Politics and Public Affairs at Franklin and Marshall College in Pennsylvania.
Toomey may appeal to the state’s moderate voters with a call for expanded gun background checks. Plus, Pennsylvania has seen a recent spike in the number of Democrats switching to the Republican Party. But McGinty may hammer Toomey over Garland’s stalled Supreme Court nomination.
Anna Douglas and Curtis Tate contributed to this report.
William Douglas: 202-383-6026, @williamgdouglas