North Carolina Rep. Virginia Foxx, who has consistently cruised to victory over seven terms in the House, typically doesn’t have much to worry about during an election year. In 2016, she didn’t even bother running any TV ads.
But in 2018, Foxx’s campaign has been on the airwaves in the state’s 5th Congressional District since the end of August.
Foxx is one of at least a half-dozen House incumbents in traditionally solidly Republican seats who are attempting to reach voters with TV ads for the first time in years, or earlier in the election cycle than usual, according to data provided by the GOP media buying firm Medium Buying.
While their races aren’t near the top of either party’s target list, Republican members of Congress from Ohio to Missouri to Florida are preparing for the worst, hoping to shield themselves in the event of a massive Democratic wave in November.
“There’s only two ways to run: unopposed and scared. If you’re not unopposed, I don’t care how safe your district is, because you should be running all out, especially if you’re a Republican in this environment,” said Mark Harris, a GOP operative working on several congressional campaigns. “I’ve told all my clients in safe seats, you need to plan to raise and spend everything.”
Dipping into the $3 million in her campaign account, Foxx has been running positive TV ads since August 23. After hitting the airwaves in mid-October during her 2014 campaign, Foxx eschewed TV ads altogether in 2016.
Foxx, who chairs the House Education Committee, is still heavily favored in her rural northwestern North Carolina district, which Trump won by 18 points in 2016. But her campaign acknowledges it will be more of a challenge this time around.
“In this cycle, any Republican who doesn’t work hard and doesn’t take their race seriously is making a mistake,” said Jordan Shaw, a consultant for the Foxx campaign. “You can’t take anything for granted in this environment.”
Similarly, Rep. Ann Wagner, a Missouri Republican, aired positive TV ads over the summer, marking her first campaign commercials since she first ran for the House in 2012. Wagner has never won a race in the state’s 2nd District by fewer than 20 points. Trump carried it by 10 points two years ago.
Two national surveys released last week underscore how treacherous the political terrain is for Republicans seven weeks out from Election Day. Polls from Quinnipiac University and Marist College showed Democrats with a double-digit lead on the generic congressional ballot and Trump’s approval rating below 40 percent. Numbers like that have Republicans worried that turnout among their base voters will be lower than usual across the board.
“Members are coming back and their numbers aren’t what they’re used to,” said Tom Davis, a former National Republican Congressional Committee chairman. “The underlying atmosphere is just not good. They have to run campaigns and remind people why they’ve been voting Republican. It’s just not automatic this year.”
With that in mind, other House Republicans have started their TV ad campaigns at an earlier date compared to recent cycles. In Ohio’s 14th district, GOP Rep. Dave Joyce didn’t run any ads until the final weeks of the 2016 campaign. He ended up winning by 25 points, while Trump carried the district by 12.
In 2018, however, Joyce went on air for the first time in mid-August with a spot highlighting policy areas where he broke with Trump and GOP leaders in Washington.
“I’ll do what’s right for northeastern Ohio, even if it means standing up to my own party,” Joyce says in the ad.
Florida’s 25th District is more evenly divided along partisan lines, as Trump only carried it by two points. But GOP Rep. Mario Diaz-Balart hasn’t had much trouble holding on to the Miami-area seat. He only began airing ads in October of 2016 when facing a nominal Democratic challenge after running unopposed in 2014.
Diaz-Balart is taking his 2018 race more seriously, though. His first TV ad, which he launched in mid-July, attacked his Democratic opponent, Mary Barzee Flores. Diaz-Balart also went on air with a shorter positive ad. After taking a break in August, Diaz-Balart went back up with positive ads last week.
Anna Carbonell, a consultant for the Diaz-Balart campaign, said they thought it was important to go on air earlier this cycle to beat the rush of fall ads.
“You always want to have an opportunity to draw a contrast when there is less clutter on the airwaves,” Carbonell said.
And in Indiana’s 2nd District, GOP Rep. Jackie Walorski has been on the air with three different positive TV ads since the end of July. In 2016, when both she and Trump won the district by more than 20 points, she first ran ads in August.
“She wants to share her message of common sense solutions with as many voters as possible,” Walorski campaign manager Stephen Simonetti said.
Even NRCC chairman Steve Stivers is following suit. He won re-election to his seat in Ohio’s 15th District by 32 points in 2016, while Trump carried it by 15 points. Stivers began airing ads in mid-September then, but this year, he bumped up that timetable to mid-August.
NRCC communications director Matt Gorman said Stivers has been stressing from the beginning of the cycle that every GOP member, regardless of district, would need to run a “real race.”
“He knows better than anybody what it’s like to run in a tough race and in a tough year,” Gorman said.
So far, national Democratic and Republican groups have not invested heavily in any of these races. But in an unpredictable political climate, the GOP candidates aren’t taking any chances.
“Things can get really weird in a wave year, and you best protect yourself,” Harris said.
Adam Wollner: 202-383-6020, @AdamWollner