American politics just witnessed the launch of Donald Trump Campaign 3.0 as the billionaire sought to recover and retool his bid once again for the long slog to Nov. 8.
Aides say there’s plenty of time left for the unorthodox, unpopular candidate to build or regain momentum.
But here’s a news flash: It may be 11 weeks until the presidential votes are counted. But it’s only four weeks until voters by the millions begin casting their ballots.
Early voting is changing the timing, tempo and content of what is already a truly awkward, expensive and cumbersome presidential selection process.
Currently, 34 states allow early voting and three more do all voting by mail, negating that need.
The advent of early voting has exploded in U.S. politics – 1-in-5 votes were cast early in 2004, then 3-in-10 in 2008. Last time in the Romney-Obama tilt, fully 1-in-3 were all done before Election Day.
The proportion is expected to grow this year and beyond as Americans’ clear preference for anytime-everything grows – banking and shopping especially.
Early voting is changing the timing, tempo and content of what is already a truly awkward, expensive and cumbersome presidential selection process.
In the 20th Century, conscientious campaigns organized massive, day-long car caravans to shuttle supporters to and from polls on Election Day. No more. Now they can spread that heavy workload out over several weeks.
In some primary states last spring Hillary Clinton workers had buses ferry African-American worshipers right from Sunday services to vote and back.
She’ll repeat the effort as soon as early voting begins Sept. 23, starting with South Dakota and Minnesota, then Illinois and Iowa by month’s end.
Voting in crucial battleground Ohio begins Oct. 12, as does Arizona. Florida follows later that month as does North Carolina. Oregon, Washington and Colorado vote entirely by mail well before Nov. 8.
The beauty of early voting for well-organized candidates is they lock up support early, inoculating themselves against their own gaffes.
The beauty of early voting for well-organized candidates is they lock up support early, inoculating themselves against their own gaffes, attacks or news events that could adversely affect them. It also negates any late surge by an opponent.
During 2012, Newt Gingrich embarrassed Mitt Romney by capturing the South Carolina evangelical vote and viciously attacking the wealthy businessman. Remember “vulture capitalist”?
But before that development could cause second thoughts farther south, Romney forces had already built a substantial lead among early voters in Florida. The former governor effectively smothered Gingrich’s angry bid right there.
Obama also employed an effective early voting drive in his two election wins, although his vote total fell by 4 million the second time. Oh, look! Numerous Obama campaign veterans now work for Clinton, who’s moving aggressively on early voting. Workers with clipboards work every Clinton appearance, steering attendees to register and/or vote early.
Clinton has already spent more than $100 million attacking Trump with millions more in the pipeline. Trump’s ad campaign began only last Friday with limited buys in a few states.
Trump’s new internal campaign theme is “Let Trump Be Trump.” Unfortunately, being Trump means being unorganized at grassroots levels. He relies on large rallies and Republican National Committee operatives.
His scheduling also seems scattered; Trump campaigned recently in Connecticut, which he has no chance of winning, then Mississippi, which he has no chance of losing. Meanwhile, he ignores once-reliably Republican Utah, where his numbers sag.
“When you have something as catastrophic as the Trump campaign is becoming,” veteran GOP strategist Mike Murphy told The New York Times, “there aren’t enough weeks left to turn things around, and little ability to organize effectively and capture a strong share of the early vote.”
Trump could be counting on a stunning debate appearance or two. They begin on Long Island Sept. 26, three days into early voting.
In 2012, Romney’s overpowering first debate performance produced a torrent of early votes in his favor.
If sustained, such positive early voting results can enable one candidate to shift forces to more competitive areas, forcing an opponent to fight on a wider front. In effect then, early voting can make the actual results on election night a foregone conclusion.
Malcolm is an author and veteran national and foreign correspondent covering politics since the 1960s. Follow him @AHMalcolm.